Harmonic Pattern Success Rate and Testing Results Explained
The trouble I found lately is that Harmonic Patterns are abused by people selling harmonic pattern indicators, scanners and course materials, etc. It is that they are showing inflated success rate for each pattern. This was even case for many bloggers who are looking to get more website traffics into their post and forum, etc. When you are considering to become full time trader with harmonic pattern trading, you do need to avoid this kind of inflated success rate. This inflated success rate will destroy your trading performance from the day 1 of your trading because you are not tuned with the realistic sense of harmonic pattern trading.
Then how much do they inflate the success rate of harmonic pattern ? This is the typical example of the inflated harmonic pattern success rate distributed by retail seller of harmonic pattern service. Abusing 80% winning rate or 85% winning rate, etc. When you see success rate like this, you must question yourself what is the reward/Risk ratio of the testing condition. Otherwise, these numbers are meaningless. If the reward/risk ratio is 1/5, then you will be losing with this success rate. If the reward/risk ratio is 2/1, then this is the way too much inflated figure. They simply do this because they want to stimulate your interest to buy their products and service, etc.
This success rate is to say that one can become millionaire in few month time with 2000 dollar initial investment. Have you heard any one who earned that much money ?? Well no. We know that only scammers are saying that. When things look too good to be true, it is typically bad sign and you need to avoid it.
For your information, please use this breakeven win rate we have generated to find out any false information or misleading information on the website about success rate of any trading strategy.
There is also second type of abuse or misrepresentation of success rate. That is developer himself is confused with success rate and pattern matching accuracy. Check this screenshot below. Accuracy of 100% is boldly printed on the screenshot. Accuracy of 100 ?? No one will generally state 100% dare in real world. If you are experienced, you will know that this is in fact, pattern matching accuracy. Pattern matching accuracy is the accuracy measurement between ideal pattern and actual pattern. This is not the success rate but calling this as accuracy can misrepresent the figure to trader. Never ever do this. Do not even take this as success rate. You will be doomed in your trading from day 1 because harmonic pattern does not work this way. This one might be due to ignorance mostly.
Harmonic Pattern trading is good way of trading but still no one have shown real testing results and success rate. There is a lot of confusion about harmonic pattern trading. What about the YouTube ? Have any one got YouTube video of testing harmonic patterns ? Unfortunately, many YouTube videos about harmonic pattern success rate are just cross between scamming and ignorance too. The fact is that you can not backtest repainting Harmonic Pattern indicator. Fortunately there are many smart people out there. They can not cheat every one of us with false harmonic pattern success rate.
Link to video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNGiDlhX9do
As we have mentioned in our another article, repainting Harmonic Pattern indicator and scanner do not show you failed patterns in chart. Therefore, it look really good in chart because you are seeing collection of successful harmonic patterns only in chart. I think you got it now where these number 80% and 85% success rate are coming from. Most of the high success rate posted in forum and website are just the success rate of successful patterns in chart. This is indeed unrealistic information and you should quickly falsify them when you see such unrealistic success rate. Below article can help you to understand more about repainting harmonic pattern indicator.
After reading this article, you might question back to us saying that you found the backtesting results of Harmonic Pattern indicator on YouTube.
Link to Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP_ehfuLAWg
In fact, this is our video we put few years ago. We are only one who have the non repainting and non lagging harmonic pattern indicators and scanners for first time in history. We have worked many years to bring patterns into scientific trading. Literally we took many years of ground hitting work because there is no guide or no theory to build non repainting Harmonic Pattern Indicator and scanner. But we have done it. We just did it because we believe that someone must do that eventually.
Here is the list of facts about Harmonic Pattern indicators and scanners from us for your information.
| Is it showing historical patterns ? | |
| Harmonic Pattern Plus | Yes |
| Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner | Yes |
| EFW Pattern Trader | No |
| Optimal Turning Point Pattern Scanner | Yes |
| showing successful historical patterns in chart only (repainting) ? | |
| Harmonic Pattern Plus | Yes |
| Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner | Yes |
| EFW Pattern Trader | No |
| Optimal Turning Point Pattern Scanner | No |
| patterns in chart are synchronized with true backtesting results ? | |
| Harmonic Pattern Plus | No |
| Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner | No |
| EFW Pattern Trader | Yes |
| Optimal Turning Point Pattern Scanner | Yes |
| Visual Backtesting available in strategy tester ? | |
| Harmonic Pattern Plus | No |
| Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner | No |
| EFW Pattern Trader | Yes |
| Optimal Turning Point Pattern Scanner | Yes |
| Is it lagging ? | |
| Harmonic Pattern Plus | No |
| Harmonic Pattern Scenario Planner | No |
| EFW Pattern Trader | No |
| Optimal Turning Point Pattern Scanner | No |
Our mission is to bring the benefit of Price Action and Pattern Trading to every trader on the planet. But we want to help you to avoid the false and misleading information for safety of your trading. What is too good to be true is something to be avoided always. You know that already. In long run, price action and pattern trading really works from our experience and testing results. However, you still need some discipline to unlock the full benefits for your trading.
https://algotrading-investment.com
AlgoTrading-Investment.com Blog 